It’s simple, really: As long as we pour CO2; into the atmosphere faster than nature drains it out, the planet warms. And that extra carbon takes a long time to drain out of the tub.

A fundamental human flaw, says John Sterman, impedes action on global warming. Sterman is not talking about greed, selfishness, or some other vice. He’s talking about a cognitive limitation, “an important and pervasive problem in human reasoning” that he has documented by testing graduate students at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Sterman teaches system dynamics, and he says his students, though very bright and schooled in calculus, lack an intuitive grasp of a simple, crucial system: a bathtub.

Interactive
Climate Change Simulator » In particular, a tub with the tap running and the drain open. The water level can stand for many quantities in the modern world. The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is one. A person’s waistline or credit card debt—both of which have also become spreading problems of late—are two more. In all three cases, the level in the tub falls only when the drain runs faster than the tap—when you burn more calories than you eat, for instance, or pay off old charges faster than you incur new ones.

Plants, oceans, and rocks all drain carbon from the atmosphere, but as climatologist David Archer explains in his book The Long Thaw, those drains are slow. It’s going to take them hundreds of years to remove most of the CO2; that humans are pouring into the tub and hundreds of thousands of years to remove it all. Stopping the rise of CO2; will thus require huge cuts in emissions from cars, power plants, and factories, until inflow no longer exceeds outflow.

Most of Sterman’s students didn’t understand that, at least not when the problem was described in the usual climate jargon . . . If MIT graduate students don’t get it, most politicians and voters probably don’t either. “And that means they think it’s easier to stabilize greenhouse gases and stop warming than it is,” Sterman says.

By 2008, the level of CO2 in the tub was 385 parts per million (ppm) and rising by 2 or 3 ppm each year. To stop it at 450 ppm, Sterman says, a level many scientists consider dangerously high, the world would have to cut emissions by around 80 percent by 2050.

When diplomats convene in Copenhagen to negotiate a global climate treaty, Sterman will be there to help, with software that shows immediately, based on the latest climate-model forecasts, how a proposed emissions cut will affect the level in the tub—and thus the temperature of the planet.

“People can learn this,” he says. —Robert Kunzig

FRIDAY, AUGUST 28, 2009

Who is the most gullible venture capitalist in the world?

The prize for the most gullible private venture capitalist maybe goes to Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures. Old Vinod whose name in Hindi means Joy or Happy is also the slang name for a clown in certain Indian traditions. This guy who has no basic knowledge of thermodynamics has been the spokes person for alternate biofuels for the venture capital industry. Perhaps even more than Alfalfa Gore another thermodynamic want to be, Vinod has led the US and California governments astray with promises of unlimited bio fuels from all sorts of cellulosic sources with unrealistic expected costs.

On August 27 The Wall Street Journal reported on the fallacy of the biofuel industry and that it is running on empty The Wall Street Journal article focused on a company called Cello Energy of Alabama. Quoting The Wall Street Journal:

“The sector suffered a major setback this summer after a federal jury ruled that Cello Energy of Alabama, a plant-fiber-based biofuel producer, had defrauded investors. Backed by venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, Cello was expected to supply 70% of the 100.7 million gallons of cellulosic biofuels that the Environmental Protection Agency planned to blend into the U.S. fuel supply next year. The alleged fraud will almost certainly prevent the EPA from meeting its targets next year, energy analysts say. “

I guess old Vinod was taken by Cello. The story gets even more interesting and again quoting the Wall Street Journal article: This year, Khosla representatives took samples of diesel produced at the new Cello plant and sent them off for testing. The results showed no evidence of plant-based fuel: Carbon in the diesel was at least 50,000 years old, marking it as traditional fossil fuel.

The EPA wasn’t told about the test, and continued to rely on Mr. Boykin’s original claims when it asserted in the Federal Register in May that Cello could produce 70% of the cellulosic fuel targets set by Congress that are due to take effect next year.

The question then should be asked is: “Why did Vinod not reveal to the EPA the results of his test of Cello biodiesel that was carbon dated to long before when Fred Flintstone drove his foot mobile?” Maybe Vinod had egg on his face or maybe he was trying to recover the millions of dollars he invested in Cello?

My conclusion is that the US government is the most gullible venture capitalist in the world and the EPA stands for Easily Prayed Animals. The sad truth is for years I have been saying biofuel is biofool and Mother Nature never intended photosynthesis to provide liquid fuel for a billion internal combustion engines. Perhaps Vinod and Alfalfa will write a book tilted the “Convenient Untruth” when they reflect upon the nonsense they sold the EPA, CARB, and the US public on biofools.

The following comment came from a Reader:
Subject: Vinod Koshla Retort:

Dear Lindsay, I’m unsuccessful in trying to add the following to your article on our “friend” Vinod Koshla, can you help, please? Many, many thanks.

As a point of personal reference, we met several times years ago at Marin Professionals. I still remember you holding up your pressure vessel for filling up celebratory balloons! Hope that you made a killing on it!”

There have been many more than Vinod Khosla who have been sucker-punched/duped by the expectations of bushels of money flowing into their pockets by supposedly cashing in on “helping” the environment. There are very few people, now, who actually believe that ethanol derived from corn is a sensible business or environmental solution – save those who are still trying to fund their failing and ever-subsidized ethanol ventures before the jig is up! Why do we insist on using food crops for fuel when there are other options? For your reference, please review the following article on Mr. Vinod Koshla: Article

Another field Koshla is investing in – cellulosic ethanol – is most probably also doomed. The large scale of the conversion plants and the massive amounts of biomass required to constantly feed them are standing in contradiction to the low energy contents of biomass. The logistics just do not pencil out. A Japanese scientist has recently presented at a symposium on biomass-derived fuels that the threshold for transporting biomass is at 30km or about 18 miles.

Another point is that the ethanol pocess can only convert the cellulose, but not the lignin, which is a large share of the biomass. This is burned in boilers to provide the process heat. This again show the bad energy balance this process has. So even if it ever can become cost competitive, it is environmental nonsense – too little energy from too much feedstock transported and converted in an inefficient way. We have calculated that with the process explained now, it is possible to yield more than two times the energy from the same feedstock, which reduces the transport distance by 50%.

There is a scientist in Germany who spent over 30 years working for the giant company, Siemens, pioneering in the development of a waste-to-fuel technology that mimics what took Mother Nature 300 million years to develop but is now done in a continuous three minute closed-loop cycle. This tried and proven technology, called the KDV is an acronym which means low pressure and low temperature catalytic depolymerization – that’s a mouthful, better use the letters, KDV!

Dr. Christian Koch has, in effect, dedicated his life’s work in finding a way to convert almost all organic waste into a fuel that can be used worldwide. In case of biomass as feedstock, the fuel is an ultra low sulfur diesel fuel oil, a synthetic oil because it’s not derived from fossil fuel like other petroleum products. Dr. Koch has managed to convert all matter of hydrocarbon wastes: waste oil, bunker oil, cardboard, construction waste, plastics, and crop wastes (corn, sugar cane, African palm, pineapple, banana, etc., etc.) into this high grade diesel fuel oil which has both an extremely high lubricity and clean burn rate – a far cry from conventional diesel fuel AND no additives are needed or being blended like bio-diesel or ethanol is; it can be used straight from the tap, as is!

Here’s my gripe: For obvious reasons, oil companies detest this technology, and members of our esteemed U.S. “bureaucracy” prefer to spend $385 million for a questionable technology, while they will not heed the call to convert organic “waste” into a very useable, in many cases carbon-neutral fuel that is less expensive than “regular” diesel, has obvious environmental benefits, is socially responsible, and can create more U.S. jobs. Interestingly, our foreign neighbors to the north, east, south and west are more strategic, they immediately see the value of diverting their waste stream into diesel fuel instead of going to the ever over-filling garbage dump.

Moreover and here’s the worldwide clincher: the KDV technology can process, convert the hydrocarbon content in pre-sorted MSW, municipal solid waste, too. Yes, it’s more complicated and more costly (a longer ROI, Return On Investment) than a fast-track bean counter would like to see BUT the global benefits are what we’ve all been waiting for, praying to see for many years AND this alternative energy development couldn’t be more timely.

If you are interested in learning more, please visit www.energy-visions.com and you will see that the future is here, now.

This group, NAMTES (Northern Agricultural Mechanical and Technical Engineering Services), is based in northern Belize which is the major growing area for sugar cane. From its base in the Estrella Village in the Corozal District, NAMTES is working with the farmers and is primarily focusing on land preparation and secondary cultivation to include fertilizing, herbiciding and advice on pest control. For example, this year’s crop suffered a 30% decrease in production as a result of an insect infestation which could have been easily controlled if the farmers had the capital for the necessary pesticide application.

Other programs yet to be launched are cane loading and transporting for those farmers who don’t have the ability due to lack of transportation and, hence, lose part or all of their cane production. Additionally, added infrastructure such as drainage, road and field design, mechanization, etc. will prove extremely beneficial for the whole Belizean economy.

All it takes is the focus of one visionary and others who share that vision for actualization to take place.

To be sure (and this is the understatement of our lifetime), the same holds true for the whole planet. Is there a solution? Yes, there are many solutions. But which one is the most viable and how is it measured? Sheer economics or a combination of financial returns coupled with social and environmental concerns?

I have spent the past six days in Abu Dhabi (the capital of the United Arab Emirates) at the urging of both private and public concerns who need a least one solution to their growing municipal solid waste problems. One very efficient and affordable option is the KDV technology which can convert municipal solid waste (as well as almost all other organic waste) into a very high grade diesel fuel.

And here we are in the middle of the planet’s richest oil producing countries! MSW is a worldwide problem and the lack of high quality diesel fuel is another. So why not convert MSW into diesel fuel?

Not only have we been meeting with the movers and shakers in Abu Dhabi, but there are projects “on the table” and being actively discussed for Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Yemen.

I can’t avoid this pun: We can’t bury our heads in the sand anymore and wish the problem of worldwide waste to disappear. That will take private and public partnerships working together. This, like global warming, is an environmental disaster in the making.

The land that Leonardo has available for the pad is just a stone’s throw from Corozal Town (which has a beautiful Caribbean waterfront and is quite popular with the tourist trade – but hasn’t been spoiled). And where there is farming, there is a need for diesel to fuel the tractors and other machinery required for production and harvesting the cane.

Upon further investigation, the combined monthly sales of the fuel stations in Corozal Town are less than one KDV 500 can produce per month. This could, indeed, cause a little competition in the marketplace. Purchasing and using fuel from organic waste versus fuel from major oil companies at the same or lower price, from which would you choose? From my biased perspective, I hope that the choice is obvious.

So, what happens when you improve sugar cane production and the refinery has excess capacity to utilize the extra cane? Next.

Besides being able to convert almost any organic or food waste into high grade diesel, is its capacity to be a “stand alone.” The machine does not need any outside power or other utilities as it uses a fraction of its own produced diesel to generate the electricity needed for is continuous operation. This is an excellent choice for countries that have sparse or intermittent utilities.

Our friend, Leonardo, has the available land and concrete pad waiting for the KDV. The site is adjacent to a county road, has power for offices, etc., and has room for expansion. The distilled water produced by the KDV can be used for irrigation and, under consideration, is the possibility of using it for municipal water in north Belize – another benefit.

Dr. Christian Koch, the inventor of the KDV and his company, AlphaKat GmbH, are manufacturing machines that can produce up to 20,000 liters (5,300 gallons) per hour. This technology could certainly help quench the thirst for diesel desperately needed for powering the needs of Belize or any other country. Finally, the high grade diesel fuel oil is super clean, carbon neutral, containing almost no sulfur, and at a low and stable price. As you might expect, the players in the petroleum are not very fond of this technology. They had their time to clean up their act and have, instead, lined their greedy coffers, depleted natural resources, polluted the planet, and continue causing physical illness to man and beast. Thank you, Dr. Koch, for stepping in to help save the day and the planet.

Taking organic trash like sugar cane waste and, for that matter, other organic waste like garbage seems like a logical and smart environmental alternative to a waste problem, an economic problem that the KDV technology can solve. Unlike other waste-to-fuel alternatives like pyrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch which use high temperatures to burn waste and create a synthetic gas; as stated, the KDV uses low pressure and low temperature converting that energy source (waste) into high grade and low sulfur diesel fuel. And unlike these two described gasification technologies, there are no emissions like dioxin and furan which are toxic.

The cost for this technology is relatively low and the return on investment is well under five years. Biodiesel plants, on the other hand, use food crops, create waste, pollute, and are expensive and inefficient to produce fuel. Some say that the KDV technology is too good to be true. Interestingly, with biodiesel, the manufacturers have to add potions to make it work correctly. With the KDV, the diesel fuel oil has increased lubricity and a hotter burn rate which allows the engine to have a longer life as well as more mileage per gallon. The choice seems obvious and our friend, Leonardo, agrees.

Next, what does this machine look like?

There exists, after over 30 years of investigation, experimentation and proof of concept, a radical technology that can convert nearly all organic waste into a super diesel fuel. This process is called “KDV” which is German for low pressure and low temperature depolymerization. For us non-techies, it means that the complex carbon molecules contained in organic materials is broken down through this process into simple molecules (CH16 and CH32 become CH4 and CH8 and so on). All this organic waste is pulverized and with the addition of a little proprietary zeolite (kind of like turkey bone powder), it’s then heated to around 350°C (660°F) in an oil bath and what is produced through distillation is a very high grade of diesel fuel oil. More on this technology later!

Our visionary, Leonardo, wants to collect all his (and others) sugar cane field trash and, using the KDV, convert it into diesel fuel. Currently (2 June 2009) diesel sells for a whopping $3.75 per gallon in Belize and it is, again, inching upward with the rest of the world’s pricing on petroleum products. But, in this economically depressed country, it’s very tough, indeed, to make ends meet – especially in the agricultural sector.

So, what does this mean to the Belizean sugar cane grower/farmer? Here’s the deal: If Leonardo’s laborers collect the sugar cane trash from the fields and take it to the KDV instead of burning, the trash is turned into diesel and the growers/farmers will get the diesel fuel oil at substantially reduced prices – much less than if they were to purchase it at the pump.

How this works, next…

Let’s get back to what’s happening. There’s labor extended by so many to burn row after row after row of sugar cane crowns and other waste left in the fields after manual or mechanical harvest. The fire, the more the pollution from this field burning is enough to sear the eyes of the beholder, let alone the poor laborer whose task it is to set ablaze these rows upon rows upon rows of sugar cane crowns and other “waste.” When you witness the destruction, the fire, the smoke, and the pollution, you get a sense of the aggregate environmental malaise that occurs annually and affects the world’s air quality. And this is just one small country! Think globally!! Where else does this occur: all of Latin America (Mexico, Central and South America), the Philippines, Hawaii, India, Asia, and …? Remember what happens when the volcano spews its smoke and ash; remember what happens when the Gobi Desert has a sand storm? The same holds true for field burning or co-gen of bunker oil, etc.? (Okay, I won’t get into what happens when 12 miles off shore, the cargo ships switch from diesel to bunker and… again pollute to the hilt in the “name of economy” the shipping lanes and “our” air, what happens?” To be sure, we will “feel” or “inhale” it.)

There’s a lot of sugar cane trash in sugar cane growing. And what is the composition of this “trash”? Many left-overs. Once the sugar cane has been harvested whether manually or mechanically, there are leftovers in the field consisting of leaves, blow-down, stubble, etc. (And I am your typical layman describing in non-technical terms). At the refinery, after the cane has been “processed,” there is a tremendous amount of bagasse, cachaza, filter press and other stuff – all containing vast amounts of waste energy. In Belize, their one refinery uses much of the waste for its co-generation plant as electricity (through steam turbines) to power the refinery and also to produce power for the electric utility.

What I’d like to focus on here is the leftover field trash and share Leonardo’s vision, too. Currently all the sugar cane harvesting is done manually with laborers wielding machetes; and all the fields are burned after harvest to “clean up” the fields and prepare for next year’s crop.

Here are two operations that can be mediated and have profound consequences. Other countries have growers and co-ops that have imported specially designed mechanical harvesting equipment that speeds up harvesting and hence, reduces employee/laborer injury and is vastly more efficient. However, there still is much “trash” left in the field that, until now, is burned.

The Field Trash Vision and what it entails: This is a multi-step process and will conceivably include many sugar cane growers in Belize. The vision, put simply, is to stop field burning. That’s easy to say and the environmentally correct thing to do but, why would farmers want to change what they’ve done successfully and for generations? What’s in it for them? They burn the fields. The smoke clears. The fields are clean for the next year. Life goes on.

As an aside, when in Guatemala working with the cane producers there, I asked a manager about pollution when their co-gens are spewing black smoke and ash into the air. And, when the plant is burning bunker oil after the bagasse has been spent but needs to continue to produce electrical energy for the grid. His reply was that his plant was out in the country where few people live and… Well, there are many who know that that smoke, that pollution travels in the wind currents all over the world – just as we know that when a volcano erupts or the Gobi Desert has a severe sand storm, those same wind currents carry what’s in the air “there” to “here.” So, there needs to be some paradigm shifts in perception and thought so that all of us, throughout our world, can get on the same play page.

To be continued…